Where I've Been

I have been silent, I know. Both work and life keep me busy. At work, we released Android 1.1, which added voice search, Latitude, and paid apps. We continue to advance the platform, with exciting upcoming releases including the anticipated cupcake milestone. And of course there will be more phones.

In life, I spend most of my blogging cycles on my food blog (feed), knocking out several posts a week—that is not just a lot of blogging, but quite a bit of braising, infusing, roasting, and even foam making.

I find myself again with pen to paper—nothing anytime soon—and am happy to announce two new translations of Linux Kernel Development: Korean and Simplified Chinese. These new, updated, translations reflect the latest printing of the second edition. Find them at your local bookseller.

Also, I got engaged.

Outside Bankie Banx's Dune Preserve, Rendevzous Bay, Anguilla, Inauguration Day

But the largest reason for the radio silence is that a lot of my blogging is on economics and I do not have any insight into our current situation. It is disingenuous to blog otherwise. I don't have a great hold on what is going on, and neither do most commentators, including many economists. If the top macroeconomists are without agreement, I am not sure what a trade economist can add, let alone I.

That said, I did say this, seven months before AIG's liquidity crisis:

The problem: As CDS contracts are not collateralized or otherwise guaranteed, their real value depends on the creditworthiness of the involved parties. The CDS contracts are being marked to market as sizable profit, but if a series of defaults hit, can the reinsuring parties pay the hedgers?

Six months ago, I wrote that while the societal and economic situation is not as bad as during The Great Depression, the financial situation is worse. I believe that continues to be true. But therein lies our problem: This is largely a financial, not an economic, mess, thus our tonic is financial, not economic. Few outside of Wall Street fully understand the esotericism that led us here. Yet few inside of Wall Street are trusted by the public. The Obama administration, led by Secretary Geithner, continues to balance that opposition with a "fix" rather than "replace" Wall Street approach. That is my policy prescription, too.

Let's hope it works.