I had fun live-twittering last night's election returns. At the peak, there were over 100 folks following vote2008 and untold number simply refreshing the webpage. The real-time sequential list of small updates works fairly well for Super Tuesday given the abundance of information—24 states, two parties, five (née four) major candidates—and constant, rolling updates.
In contrast, I was surprised just how bad was the presentation and UI of some of my sources. CNN.com is absurdly unusable, a unique vomitorium, offering a poor experience for both casual visitors wanting a one-time update and for junkies seeking a constant feed of information (although their HDTV station makes great use of the screen real estate with a heads-up display of election statistics). The best view I found was the Times, whose election coverage graphic would make Edward Tufte proud:
Anyhow, I will continue to update @vote2008 with major election news and will likely live-twitter the general election.
So where are we now?
For the GOP, which is a clearer situation, Sen McCain is the frontrunner. The nomination is not yet a lock, but the senator is the obvious favorite. Gov Romney did surprisingly poor while Gov Huckabee did unexpectedly well. Did voters flee from Romney to Huckabee at the 11th hour? Neither have to drop out, given that Gov Romney is self-funding his campaign and has the means with which to continue and Gov Huckabee never really had any money (or a real campaign) to begin with.
The Democratic side is more complicated. Sen Obama's campaign claims a projected delegate lead. He also did well in proportional delegate states where he did not win—why do the networks harp on who wins if its a close race and proportional?—and he has shown an awesome mastery of caucuses. On the flip side, Sen Clinton won both California and New York with impressive margins and, at least by my count, is winning in pledged delegates.
What happens next—who wins the Democratic nomination—is going to depend on how the media frames the fight. If they label Sen Obama the Comeback Kid and play up his impressive performance, momentum will carry him to victory. The next few states are favorable to Obama, but Clinton also has an advantage with superdelegates and the party establishment, which you cannot play down once this brawl goes to convention. That advantage will subside if Obama rides a wave of popular support from today through to the convention. Conversely, if the media downplays Sen Obama's victory, I see Clinton maintaining her presumptive nominee title and winning the nomination. Unfortunate to place that power on the media, but an exciting race nonetheless.
