Friday, December 14, 2007

Hoop Conjecture

Is this leak by a Clinton staffer the first sign of her campaign's implosion?

On the eve of the final Iowa debate before the Jan. 3 caucuses, Clinton campaign insiders are increasingly questioning the cautious, poll-driven approach taken by Mark Penn, Hillary Rodham Clinton's top political aide, sources familiar with the situation say.

With Clinton barely holding her own against Barack Obama and John Edwards in Iowa, dissatisfaction is growing with Penn, who some say has mistakenly run Clinton as a de facto incumbent.

"There are two people who have come up with this strategy—Hillary Clinton and Mark Penn," said a top Clinton ally, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Mark wanted to run her, basically, for re-election, and we are seeing what happened."

Probably not, but we are looking at a campaign that originally considered her nomination if not her election a lock, and now they are forced to face a very real chance of failure. You can see the panic in moves such as the Senator Obama drug comment.

Also interesting is that President Clinton is pushing for more aggressive attacks:

Bill Clinton—along with former White House hands—have counseled her to adopt a far more aggressive approach with Obama.

Penn, sources say, has counseled moderation, believing an attack would elevate her already-high negatives and drive her too far to the left to win a general election.

A by-the-polls campaign with an overarching fear of moving too far to the left? Sounds like the first Clinton presidency.

The latest Iowa numbers have Senator Obama besting Senator Clinton by three points on average (and as much as nine points in one poll). Intrade is currently pricing an Obama victory at 60% compared to Clinton's 35. For a campaign that continues to disappoint, those gains are impressive.